10

March 2014

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I wrote a blog on Saturday night looking at the odds for the Tasmanian election.  You can find it here. 

There has been a significant development in Braddon.

Braddon

After having been taken down on Friday, put up on Saturday morning and taken down again on Saturday afternoon, this market finally reappeared on Monday afternoon.

Adam Brooks has now moved from $3.50 last Friday to $1.05 today. 

That is absolutely amazing.  I'm not sure I've ever seen a market move like that in three days.

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

$1.05

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

$5.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Green

11,221

Rockliff

10,994

Best

7,087

Brooks

6,072

O’Halloran

5,718

Rumours always circulate about Adam Brooks' spending.  We know he's a successful businessman and we know he is happy to spend big. 

To win the electorate, Brooks needs to make up almost 5,000 primary votes on the Liberal Party's high-profile, popular Deputy Leader Jeremy Rockliff.

And Rockliff isn’t mucking around either.  He put together the mother of all election ads that could have been directed by James Cameron for this campaign and his signs blanket the North West Coast.

He also polled a massive 11,000 votes last time around.

That’s why I can’t comprehend this plunge on Brooks. 

While I think Brooks is still the most likely outcome, I don't think it's a $1.05 chance.  $1.05 is almost as short as Hodgman is in Franklin. 

As I explained previously, this is a two-horse race that no one but Rockliff and Brooks can win.  If they were greyhounds you would have to say Rockliff's been given the best box with his longevity and status as Deputy Leader.  But Brooks is training out of the best kennel, with the best trainer courtesy of his financial largess.

I think Rockliff is now worth a speculative bet.  I said previously that if he got out to $4.50+ I’d have a nibble. 

Better whip out the wallet…

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