9

March 2014

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I’m a rare breed.  Two of my favourite things are gambling and politics.  So when the two come together I get very bloody excited.

Sportsbet is taking bets on the outcome of the Tasmanian State election and electorate-by-electorate results.  Specifically, the odds for each electorate are for which candidate will get the highest number of primary votes.

The electorate-by-electorate betting on candidates is interesting because there is no (at least publicly available) polling about specific candidates.  I’m not sure Sportsbet will want to do it again because I think it made a number of errors when it set the initial odds.  Those have largely been rectified as astute #politas followers have taken the bookie on, extracting excellent value on candidates like Brooks, Ferguson, White and Bacon to top the poll.

But there’s still some value around, so let’s make some money.

 

Party of next Premier

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Liberal

$1.05

$1.05

Labor

$7.50

$7.50

Green

$15

$21

PUP

$51

$51

Historically Speaking

We all thought Will Hodgman was going to be Premier this time four years ago.  But no one counted on David Bartlett reacquainting himself with his bike and racing Nick McKim up Mt Wellington.

But this time the stage looks set for a big Liberal win of over 13 seats, majority and no need for Governor to do too much work.

The Movers

When this market originally went up in early January the Liberals were at an incredibly juicy $1.15.  That quickly shortened to $1.08 and now to $1.05.  It was briefly listed at $1.04. 

The only move in the last 24 hours is the Greens out to $21.  But you may as well give your money to charity if you’re thinking about taking that up.

The Value Bet

If Hodgman has a bad final week and secures less than 13 seats, it will be an open race to form government.  I’d like to be holding a Labor ticket at $7.50 in those circumstances given Hodgman has said he won’t govern in minority.

I’d like to meet anyone who has placed a bet on Greens or PUP and tell them about my friend in Kenya who needs help to move $1,000,000 out of the country…

The Tip

I wouldn’t bet on this.   All the polling shows the Liberals winning 13 + seats which is reflected in the short odds.

 

Bass

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Ferguson

$1.75

$1.45

Gutwein

 

$3.75

M O’Byrne

 

$9.00

Booth

 

$11.00

Wightman

 

$21.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Ferguson

15,911

O’Byrne

11,380

Gutwein

9,060

Booth

8,853

Wightman

3,191

The Movers

Friday’s odds aren’t all there (because they are off memory only) but I thought Ferguson was very good value at $1.75 at the time, but he’s come into $1.45 today which I think is about right.

In 2010 Ferguson was the former Federal Member for Bass who easily topped the poll with almost 16,000 primary votes.  There is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

The Value Bet

This candidate who tops the Bass poll will be from the Liberal Party.  The total Green vote will be below the top Liberal personal performance and Labor’s vote be well down overall and split between two strong candidates in Michelle O’Byrne and Wightman. 

That leaves Peter Gutwein as the only possible chance the beat Ferguson.  I think that’s very unlikely.  He was 7,000 votes behind Ferguson in 2010 and there’s nothing to suggest he could make up so much ground.

The Tip

Ferguson is a safe bet and at $1.45 you can still get a decent return on investment.  As shadow education spokesperson he’s had a strong four years and used the threat of school closures to further boost his profile. 

 

Braddon

10/3/2014 - note I have updated this Braddon analysis here

This betting has been taken down for the second time into two days.  The bookie seriously stuffed this up, offering the outrageously good odds of $3.50 for Adam Brooks.

When the market briefly reappeared on Saturday morning Brooks had been crushed into $1.75.  If he was a horse you’d be throwing accusations of a fix..

I’d love to know how much action this market has seen since it went up online (and then got taken down, and up and down).

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

 

 

 

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Green

11,221

Rockliff

10,994

Best

7,087

Brooks

6,072

O’Halloran

5,718

The Movers

Brooksy is the hot favourite among #politas types.  One Labor doorknocker in Braddon claimed he was more popular than David Boon and David Foster combined up on the Coast.  That’s impressive.

There’s nothing wrong with Rockliff.  He’s been electoral gold for the Liberals in the past.  But there’s just something about Brooksy, and it’s not hanging off his ear.

He spends big and he loves a good event.  It was an incredible effort for him to finish fourth at the last election, first time up.  Especially as he outpolled the high-profile, then sitting State Liberal MP Brett Whitely. 

The Value Bet

Brooksy was value at $3.50 and probably still is at $1.75.  Rockliff isn’t without a chance, but I’d like to see him go out a bit further than $3.50 before I had a nibble.  If he gets to $4.50 he might be worth a sneaky speculative bet simply because he finished so far ahead of Brooks last time.  Brooks has to make up over 5,000 primary votes to catch Rockliff.  That's a massive task.

Don't go near any other candidate.  Green and Best will split a declining Labor vote and the Greens will lose this seat to the PUP.

The Tip

Brooksy (if Sportsbet ever reopens the market).

 

Denison

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Matthew Groom

$1.50

$1.95

Scott Bacon

$4.00

$2.50

Cassy O’Connor

$5.00

$6.00

Julian Amos

 

$8.00

Elise Archer

 

$9.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

O’Connor

10,336

Bartlett

10,169

Groom

9,602

Bacon

7,356

Singh

3,833

The Movers

Another candidate crushed here.  Bacon has gone from juicy $4.00 odds to the more realistic $2.50.  That’s led to Groom and O’Connor drifting a little.  They are the only three candidates capable of topping this poll.

The Value Bet

The value was Bacon, but with his drift into $2.50 O’Connor becomes the value at $6.  She will pull 80+% of the Green vote again and I consider Burnett last time to have been a stronger running-mate than Harvey this time.

O’Connor won this last time and if the Green vote really is as strong in Denison as polling suggests, she could top the poll again.

The Tip

Bacon.  Labor has struggled with its preselections and failed to attract a high-profile second candidate to Denison to support Bacon.  That might be bad news for the party’s prospects of winning two seats, but its good news for Bacon’s chances to top the poll as a very high percentage of Labor votes are set to go his way.

Groom is a very strong candidate, but so is Archer.  While the Liberal vote will increase, Archer is set to increase her vote and eat into the Groom vote.  Liberal candidates for Denison Mallet, De Williams and Kling are also running solid campaigns, taking more potential first preference votes from Groom.

 

Franklin

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hodgman

$1.03

$1.03

Giddings

$17

$19

McKim

$19

$17

O’Byrne

$26

$26

Petrusma

$34

$34

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Hodgman

20,032

McKIm

15,462

Giddings

9,642

O’Byrne

4,846

Petrusma

2,500

The Movers

Minor changes with Giddings moving out to $19 and McKim coming into $17.

The Value Bet

None really.  Although if you could convince Sportsbet to let you put $1m at $1.03 on Hodgman you could go on a nice little holiday with the winnings.

McKim at $17 might not be as silly as it sounds.  The Liberals have another strong ticket in Franklin.  Petrusma has spent a lot of money, Harriss will take Huon Valley first preferences off Hodgman and Street is a popular first term Kingorough Councillor who outpolled Bernadette Black 2-1 in that election.  He is also one of the only new candidates to have managed to get media attention, with the Mercury covering his call for Bellerive to host an Ashes test and his sock delivery stunt having a subtle dig at Harriss.

If Petrusma, Harriss and Street can take enough votes off Hodgman, McKim (who has no real competition for Green votes) could sail on through for the win. 

Giddings and O'Byrne are set to split the Labor vote making neither a chance to top the poll.

The Tip

Hodgman should win this easily.

 

Lyons

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hidding

 

$3

Barnett

 

$3.75

White

$6

$2.95

Shelton

 

$7

Morris

 

$9

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Morris

9,108

Polley

8,302

Hidding

7,608

Llewellyn

6,612

White

6,450

The Movers

Again, the punters didn’t agree with the bookie and have taken Sportsbet on.  White has moved from $6 on Friday 7 March, into $3.50 early on Saturday and was the favourite at $2.95 by Saturday night.

The Value Bet

Tim Morris won this last time and it’s been pretty much business as usual for him since then.  At $9 he is excellent value.  To top the poll he’ll need the Liberal team to again poll pretty evenly and for David Llewellyn and Bob Gordon to take most of the Polley vote (as opposed to those votes going to White).

I don't believe any of the Liberals can win this.  Considering how long Hidding has been around, he has never really polled very well.  In 2010, his personal vote actually went down from 8,500 to 7,600.  Shelton hasn't had a huge impact on the Parliament since he arrived.  The smokey could be former Senator Guy Barnett who's into $3.75.  But remember, the Liberals also have popular local Mayors Cadart and Evans stealing first preferences.

The Tip

I think White is the most likely, providing former Polley voters don’t decide to switch over to Llewellyn or Gordon.

Have a little something on ever-consistent Tim Morris just in case.

 

Comments (2)

2 comments

#8
Dean Winter says:
March 9, 2014 at 09:57 pm
I think that's another reason why you wouldn't bet on anyone but the Liberals in the 'who will be Premier' stakes.

However, I think the chances of the Liberals' not getting majority now is very, very low. In a betting context, I wouldn't back anything but a Liberal Premier.
#7
Lisa says:
March 9, 2014 at 05:33 pm
what are your thoughts on a Lib outcome of 12 seats and Will stepping down for another Lib leader to form a minority government (as happened with Groom and Rundle in 1996)?

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