16

March 2014

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I wrote three blogs on Tasmanian State Election betting before the election.  You can find my complete roundup of the chances here, an update specifically on the Adam Brooks betting plunge here and my final roundup of the market movers here.

Things I got right:

  • Hodgman smashed everyone (but that wasn't a hard one)
  • Bacon won Denison and smart punters got the $4 return on him.
  • Brooks won Braddon and smart punters got the $3.50 return on him.

Things I got wrong:

  • The biggest surprise was in Bass, where it looks like Peter Gutwein has outpolled Michael Ferguson.  I expected Gutwein to make up a little bit of ground, but nowhere near the 7,000.  Never mind though because I dont think Ferguson will be too upset about polling 14,000 votes.  Gutwein was my other listed chance and was paying $5 by polling day.  Sportsbet would have had a very strong result from this after Ferguson was actually backed into $1.15 by election day.
  • Like most people I'm shocked at the Greens' result in Lyons.  2010's winner, Tim Morris win looks like he'll actually lose his seat.  His vote halved in the worst result for a sitting candidate in the State. The Liberals' five (excellent) candidates did all have a strong showing as I predicted, but the sum of the vote was so large that both Barnett AND Hidding outpolled my predicted winner, Rebecca White.  I didn't rate Hidding's chances because he doesn't have a history of topping the poll and his vote actually went backwards from 2006-2010 (although the fact he was Leader in '06 may explain this on reflection).  I was dead wrong and he actually beat Barnett who I predicted would top the Liberal ticket.  Punters didn't like Hidding either and he'd slid from $3 to $4 by election day.  That suggests the bookie was smarter than the punters here.

How I did

A lot of people were asking me what I bet on last night so here it is.

Overall my personal bets on Scott Bacon saved my election punting.  I had $150 at $4 and $100 at $3.  My original request was to put $1000 on him at $4 but sportsbet wouldn't allow me to do that (#%&@ers).

I lost $200 on Ferguson at $1.75, $150 on Rebecca White at $6 and $50 at $9 on Tim Morris.  I also had $50 on Rockliff just because I thought he was ridiculously good value at $5 and I said I would do it if he got passed $4.50 in this blog series.  So overall a net positive result of $450.  Not what I'd hoped for by still a decent return.

I hope you didn't lose too much money backing White or Ferguson like I suggested! 

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