March 2014


Newspoll: Liberal 53 Labor 23 Green 16 PUP 4 Others 4

Seat breakdown based on this poll: Awaiting electorate figures, but Liberal majority win (tentatively approx 14-7-4 or 15-6-4)

Aggregate and forecast will be updated based on electorate figures

Note: On election night (Saturday) I will be live-blogging for the Mercury from c. 6-11pm.  A link will be posted here.  Anyone not working for the Mercury should not attempt to call me in this time. 

Newspoll has spoken.  The Tasmanian state election appears over as a contest, although it could be said it has been over now for years.  What was the Labor-Green coalition government faces a combined swing against it of almost 20 points (even more than the 16.7 points in the most recent ReachTEL).  It might not be quite that bad on election day, but it will still be very, very bad indeed.

Full analysis will be added to this article when I've seen the full electorate breakdowns, but on these figures PUP would not win any seats, and that might improve Labor's expectations to seven by allowing them to save both their seats in Braddon.  But it will be interesting to see whether the Newspoll breakdowns point to a third Liberal seat in Denison or to any chance of a fourth in Braddon.  It may be that 15-6-4 is possible, though we should treat that with caution since other polls haven't been showing it. 

What we do have already is the satisfaction ratings for the leaders, and they tell us more about why Labor won't remain in office.  Premier Lara Giddings has a netsat of -33 (satisfied 29, dissatisfied 62).  It is common for Tasmanian Premiers to go to elections with negative netsats (Bacon and Lennon exceptions) but this is the worst netsat for a Tasmanian Premier in Newspoll history, and well up on the table for the worst in any state.  There is no precedent for victory for a premier with such ratings anywhere.  (Giddings is not the most unpopular Premier in Tasmanian history though - that dishonour went to Harry Holgate, who scored -59 after rolling Doug Lowe.) [Read more]

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