14

March 2014

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Newspoll: Liberal 53 Labor 23 Green 16 PUP 4 Others 4

Seat breakdown based on this poll: Awaiting electorate figures, but Liberal majority win (tentatively approx 14-7-4 or 15-6-4)

Aggregate and forecast will be updated based on electorate figures

Note: On election night (Saturday) I will be live-blogging for the Mercury from c. 6-11pm.  A link will be posted here.  Anyone not working for the Mercury should not attempt to call me in this time. 

Newspoll has spoken.  The Tasmanian state election appears over as a contest, although it could be said it has been over now for years.  What was the Labor-Green coalition government faces a combined swing against it of almost 20 points (even more than the 16.7 points in the most recent ReachTEL).  It might not be quite that bad on election day, but it will still be very, very bad indeed.

Full analysis will be added to this article when I've seen the full electorate breakdowns, but on these figures PUP would not win any seats, and that might improve Labor's expectations to seven by allowing them to save both their seats in Braddon.  But it will be interesting to see whether the Newspoll breakdowns point to a third Liberal seat in Denison or to any chance of a fourth in Braddon.  It may be that 15-6-4 is possible, though we should treat that with caution since other polls haven't been showing it. 

What we do have already is the satisfaction ratings for the leaders, and they tell us more about why Labor won't remain in office.  Premier Lara Giddings has a netsat of -33 (satisfied 29, dissatisfied 62).  It is common for Tasmanian Premiers to go to elections with negative netsats (Bacon and Lennon exceptions) but this is the worst netsat for a Tasmanian Premier in Newspoll history, and well up on the table for the worst in any state.  There is no precedent for victory for a premier with such ratings anywhere.  (Giddings is not the most unpopular Premier in Tasmanian history though - that dishonour went to Harry Holgate, who scored -59 after rolling Doug Lowe.) [Read more]

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13

March 2014

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Of all the advertising in the Tasmanian election so far, the piece that has most interested me has been the Greens' claim to represent "real liberal values", as seen in a leaflet distributed in parts of the state and on this website.  So far as I know the claim has been largely ignored by opponents, but I thought it was something that deserved proper critical scrutiny. 

The campaign is part of an increasingly confident and positive attempt by the Greens to take advantage of Labor's apparent death spiral in order to make a play for Opposition or at least co-Opposition status to the incoming Liberal government.  A part of this is an ambitious attempt to snare an elusive second seat in Denison.  The Greens have had their eyes on this prize for a long time but have never quite got there.  Past elections under both the seven-seat and five-seat systems have now and then seen polling samples that implied this result was possible, but it has never happened.  

The Greens have decided that they will try to appeal to what are often called "small-l liberal" voters in Denison.  They are fishing for the votes of those whose political views are "closer to those of Malcolm Turnbull than those of Tony Abbott".  In my view around 4% of Denison voters fit this kind of leftish-Liberal profile, and they are concentrated in the relatively wealthy Liberal-vs-Green southern suburbs (Battery Point, Mt Nelson, Sandy Bay, Taroona).  Most of them moved to Andrew Wilkie at the 2010 state election and have stayed with him ever since, but Andrew Wilkie is not a candidate at this election and his votes are up for grabs.

The role of this article is not to say whether the tactic of trying to harvest left-Liberal votes will work.  It is to present views on whether the claims made in it are correct.

The most obvious thing about the Greens' pitch to left-Libs is the colour:

Yes, it's a Green ad in Liberal colours!  It seems that the Liberals are no longer zealously protecting the colour "Liberal Blue" against use by their competitors. 

The discrepancy between the Liberal Party and liberal values (of whatever kind) is something I wrote about before in one of my favourite articles on this site, What is an independent liberal?  The Liberal Party is not consistently any of classically liberal, "small-l liberal" or what Americans call "liberal" (though the third can be argued to be a latter-day twisting of the term itself).  So here's my view on how the Greens go making headway on this issue. [Read More]

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12

March 2014

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I've written two blogs on Tasmanian State Election betting so far.  If you're interested in betting on the Tasmanian State election you should read them before this update.  You can find my complete roundup of the chances here and an update specifically on the Adam Brooks betting plunge here.

 

Party of next Premier

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday12 March

Liberal

$1.05

$1.05

$1.02

Labor

$7.50

$7.50

$11

Green

$15

$21

$21

PUP

$51

$51

$51

 

The Movers

When this market originally went up in early January the Liberals were at an incredibly juicy $1.15.  That quickly shortened to $1.08 a few days later.  In the last week it has shortened to just $1.02.

Punters now consider this a sure thing.

The main reason for that is that every legitimate poll is calling this election for the Liberals.  As our politas friend, Kevin Bonham points out, everything points towards a majority Liberal Government.  Historically we have had to rely on EMRS polling, which has been horribly inaccurate, but this election sees new entrants like Reachtel add its considerable expertise. 

Even if the Liberals don't secure more than 13 seats on Saturday, punters will be backing a scenario where the Liberals simply cannot accept four more years in opposition and attempt to form a minority government.

As a result, punters now see a Liberal Premier as a sure thing. 

The Value Bet

The only other option is a Labor Premier in a minority government.  I think this is highly unlikely and so do the punters, now having pushed it out to $11.  In a two horse race, $11 is rarely not value.  But I still caution against this bet. 

The Tip

I wouldn’t bet on this.   All the polling shows the Liberals winning 13 + seats which is reflected in the short odds.

 

Bass

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday 12 March

Ferguson

$1.75

$1.45

$1.33

$1.25

Gutwein

 

$3.75

$4.00

$4.50

M O’Byrne

 

$9.00

 

$12.00

Booth

 

$11.00

 

$15.00

Wightman

 

$21.00

 

$21.00

 

The Movers

Ferguson has been hammered into $1.25 from $1.75 a week ago.  It's been consistent betting that's seen him continue to warm as favourite in this matchup.  Everyone else has gone further out, but its clear punters believe this is a two horse race.

The Value Bet

Only two can win this.  Ferguson and Gutwein.  Gutwein is the big underdog in this race and $4.50 is pretty good value. 

A Liberal supporter professed to me this week that he thought Gutwein could win and argued that he thought the 'Federal Member' shine could have worn off Ferguson by now.  I can't say I agree with that analysis, but it might be something to hold onto if you like an underdog.

The Tip

Ferguson is a safe bet.  Even the 25% return now being offered is ok I think.  I just cannot see Gutwein making up 7,000 primary votes.

 

Braddon

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday13 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

$1.05

$1.10

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

$5.00

$4.00

The Movers

From his massive slide from $1.75 to $5, punters have finally found their value point and hit the button on Rockliff.  As a result he's back into $4, which is still a big underdog, but it shows that punters haven't given up on him. 

As a result, Brooksy's drifted!!   I made good on my promise to have a nibble on Rockliff if he got out to $4.50 and I can now confirm that I am a proud owner of a $50 bet on Jeremy Rockliff.  I'm both a man of my word and a sucker for some good odds.

Please note that I was not the punter who pushed this down to $4.  It was safe and secure at $5 for well over 24 hours before it moved back to $4.00.

The Value Bet

I'm sticking to my earlier advice that Rockliff was good value at $4.50+.  He's back into $4, so unless you have some good intel, I'd keep away for now.

The Tip

I still think it's about 70% certain that Brooks will win this.  But don't completely discount Rockliff. 

Discard everyone else.

 

Denison

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Matthew Groom

$1.50

$1.95

$1.95

Scott Bacon

$4.00

$2.50

$2.50

Cassy O’Connor

$5.00

$6.00

$3.50

Julian Amos

 

$8.00

$9.00

Elise Archer

 

$9.00

$13.00

The Movers

Cassy crushed!  $6 into $3.50 is likely a single bet, but I think it's a good bet.  A $150 bet could have made that sort of impact on the small market and I think it probably did.  I feel a bit sorry for punters now though.  Ms O'Connor's shortening has taken a lot of value out of this market and it didn't move Groom Jnr or Bacon Jnr out any further.

The Value Bet

The value was Bacon, but with his drift into $2.50 O’Connor became the value at $6.  O'Connor at $3.50 makes 'value' hard to find in this market.

My personal view remains that either Bacon or O'Connor will win this because Groom has too much competition within the Liberal ranks.  If - like me - you believe this is a two horse race (without the favourite) then they're both value and you should bet on both for guaranteed profit!

The Tip

My immediate reaction to this market was that Bacon would clearly win it, but the polling over the weekend points to a weaker vote than I would have expected for Labor.  I'm still picking Bacon, but I think O'Connor's huge percentage of the Green vote will be very important.  If the polls are right and the Green vote holds up better than Labor's then O'Connor is in with a big shot.

Remember O'Connor JUST beat Bartlett here last time.

However, I would consider Bacon to be more popular this time than Bartlett was last time (that is pure opinion although I have run as a candidate within Denison recently and have a fairly good knowledge).  I would also consider Bacon to have significantly weaker internal competition than Bartlett did in 2010.

For that reason I am still picking Bacon to win with O'Connor second, Groom, Archer and probably Carnes if she can stay in the race until Bacon's surplus is cut up.

 

Franklin

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hodgman

$1.03

$1.03

Giddings

$17

$19

McKim

$19

$17

O’Byrne

$26

$26

Petrusma

$34

$34

The Tip

Hodgman will win this easily.  There's been no market movement. 

 

Lyons

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Hidding

 

$3

$4.00

Barnett

 

$3.75

$3.25

White

$6

$2.95

$2.20

Shelton

 

$7

$6.50

Morris

 

$9

$7.00

The Movers

I don't like to brag, but punters have either listened to me, or agree with me that the two bets here are White and - as a roughy - Morris.

Normally Rebecca White and Adam Brooks would have almost nothing in common apart from driving utes and being MPs, but tonight they share the love of punters across the State who have backed them into favouritism from being originally considered outside chances by the bookie.  White has come in from $6 to an incredible $2.20.

There has been a little bit of (heterosexual-only-after-marriage) action for former Senator Guy Barnett from $3.75 into $3.25.  If there was a market on whether Barnett would beat Hidding I would put my house on it.  The Ferguson effect (Federal MP into State seat = big votes) could be in force here, and Barnett hasn't exactly kept a low profile in his time off. 

I note at least one person has put a bet on Shelton.  Lots of laughs as he comes into $6.50.  Absolutely no hope.  It is truly bizarre that he is shorter than Morris who will clearly beat him.

The Value Bet

Tim Morris won this last time!!!

He's still out at $7 (in from $9) and I think that's waaaay too long. 

I reiterate, to increase your chances of topping the poll you don't want a strong team of fellow candidates on your ticket.  Morris has a weak Green ticket at his back.

I do not totally discount a Barnett win here because I think he's the strongest Liberal candidate.  However, I still think between Hidding, Shelton, Cadart and Evans there is just too much competition for him to top the poll.

The Tip

White*

*As long as the former Polley/Llewellyn voters don't hold a grudge about the polleywaffle thing.  Or just don't like her.  Or like Gordon better.

I think they'll vote White. 

HOWEVER, if you are going to have a bet on Ms White, make sure you have a little nibble on Mr Morris, just in case.

My tip:  White, Morris, Barnett, Hidding, Shelton

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12

March 2014

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In the final week of the Tasmanian state election campaign, the Tasmanian ALP has been accused of push-polling.  This follows the apparent leaking, by forces unknown, of an internal Labor UMR poll.

I have also obtained the contentious poll, which was conducted by telephone interviews with a sample size of 300 voters in each of Lyons and Franklin.  The Liberal Party needs to win three seats in at least one of these electorates, and is very likely to do so in Lyons, but lineball in Franklin.

The questions for the two electorates, conducted 5-6 March, appear in a results section entitled "Messaging".  Each question has the opening question "Does the following statement make you more or less likely to vote Labor in the state election or does it make no difference?"  The statements then are:

"Tasmanian Labor will restore the school kids bonus to help low income families make ends meet, that will be axed by the Liberals and Palmer United."

and:

"Just as Tasmania is starting to pick up, the Liberals plan to axe more than one thousand two hundred jobs, will destroy confidence and see many families without a breadwinner."

The results are presented in a format that looks like this (this one's for Lyons):
 

In this case, 73% of respondents must have said it would make no difference, or that they did not know.  The figures for Franklin for the same question are 9-21 based on the same format (7% much less likely, 2% little less likely, 14% little more likely, 7% much more likely) for a net +12.

For the second question the figures in Lyons are 9-20 (4-5-12-8) giving +11 and for Franklin 6-21 (3-3-11-10) giving +15.

The charge from the Liberals is that this is "push polling [..]  grubby, gutter tactics to try and launch another negative smear campaign" (Vanessa Goodwin.)

The defence from Labor's John Dowling is that the results show "a large amount" of votes can still be shifted, and that the research indicates that "thousands of voters are more likely to support Labor when they receive this information".

Dowling also said the Liberals displayed a "complete lack of understanding of research methods” and that the claims were based in fact and “the challenge for the Liberal Party is to identify what in the statements is false". [Read More]

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12

March 2014

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ReachTEL: Liberal 47.4 Labor 23.6 Green 18.2 PUP 6.7 Other 4.1
Outcome if election was held now based on this poll: Liberal Majority (14-5-5-1 based on sum of individual breakdowns, though Labor would more likely get one more seat somewhere)
New aggregate of all state polls: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1
My current forecast: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1  

In the three weeks since the last public opinion polling most of the formal 2014 state election campaign has gone by.  People often expect events that happen during campaigns (such as campaign incidents or policy announcements) to affect the outcome, but the great majority don't have much impact.  With the release of the most recent ReachTEL, taken just nine days from polling day and with prepoll voting already open, it doesn't look like this campaign period has offered any respite for a Labor government on the verge of being put out of its misery.  Indeed, this poll is if anything a shade worse for the government than its predecessor (see ReachTEL: The PUP Surge Has Landed), which was also at the low end of Labor's recent form.  Not so much because of the loss of a point of support (an insignificant difference), but because the distribution of votes between seats is even nastier. [Read More]

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