Politas Blogger - Dean Winter

Dean Winter describes himself as an economics, politics and sports enthusiast. He's studied economics, political science and journalism at UTAS as well as having worked as an advisor to Labor Ministers and Premiers. In 2012 he ran a spirited campaign against popular former Hobart Lord Mayor, Rob Valentine, for the Legislative Council Division of Hobart that was as spectacularly ambitious as it was a complete failure. Having parked political ambition, he now runs TASICT, Tasmania's ICT peak body. He stresses that his views here don't reflect his employer.


12

March 2014

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I've written two blogs on Tasmanian State Election betting so far.  If you're interested in betting on the Tasmanian State election you should read them before this update.  You can find my complete roundup of the chances here and an update specifically on the Adam Brooks betting plunge here.

 

Party of next Premier

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday12 March

Liberal

$1.05

$1.05

$1.02

Labor

$7.50

$7.50

$11

Green

$15

$21

$21

PUP

$51

$51

$51

 

The Movers

When this market originally went up in early January the Liberals were at an incredibly juicy $1.15.  That quickly shortened to $1.08 a few days later.  In the last week it has shortened to just $1.02.

Punters now consider this a sure thing.

The main reason for that is that every legitimate poll is calling this election for the Liberals.  As our politas friend, Kevin Bonham points out, everything points towards a majority Liberal Government.  Historically we have had to rely on EMRS polling, which has been horribly inaccurate, but this election sees new entrants like Reachtel add its considerable expertise. 

Even if the Liberals don't secure more than 13 seats on Saturday, punters will be backing a scenario where the Liberals simply cannot accept four more years in opposition and attempt to form a minority government.

As a result, punters now see a Liberal Premier as a sure thing. 

The Value Bet

The only other option is a Labor Premier in a minority government.  I think this is highly unlikely and so do the punters, now having pushed it out to $11.  In a two horse race, $11 is rarely not value.  But I still caution against this bet. 

The Tip

I wouldn’t bet on this.   All the polling shows the Liberals winning 13 + seats which is reflected in the short odds.

 

Bass

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday 12 March

Ferguson

$1.75

$1.45

$1.33

$1.25

Gutwein

 

$3.75

$4.00

$4.50

M O’Byrne

 

$9.00

 

$12.00

Booth

 

$11.00

 

$15.00

Wightman

 

$21.00

 

$21.00

 

The Movers

Ferguson has been hammered into $1.25 from $1.75 a week ago.  It's been consistent betting that's seen him continue to warm as favourite in this matchup.  Everyone else has gone further out, but its clear punters believe this is a two horse race.

The Value Bet

Only two can win this.  Ferguson and Gutwein.  Gutwein is the big underdog in this race and $4.50 is pretty good value. 

A Liberal supporter professed to me this week that he thought Gutwein could win and argued that he thought the 'Federal Member' shine could have worn off Ferguson by now.  I can't say I agree with that analysis, but it might be something to hold onto if you like an underdog.

The Tip

Ferguson is a safe bet.  Even the 25% return now being offered is ok I think.  I just cannot see Gutwein making up 7,000 primary votes.

 

Braddon

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday13 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

$1.05

$1.10

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

$5.00

$4.00

The Movers

From his massive slide from $1.75 to $5, punters have finally found their value point and hit the button on Rockliff.  As a result he's back into $4, which is still a big underdog, but it shows that punters haven't given up on him. 

As a result, Brooksy's drifted!!   I made good on my promise to have a nibble on Rockliff if he got out to $4.50 and I can now confirm that I am a proud owner of a $50 bet on Jeremy Rockliff.  I'm both a man of my word and a sucker for some good odds.

Please note that I was not the punter who pushed this down to $4.  It was safe and secure at $5 for well over 24 hours before it moved back to $4.00.

The Value Bet

I'm sticking to my earlier advice that Rockliff was good value at $4.50+.  He's back into $4, so unless you have some good intel, I'd keep away for now.

The Tip

I still think it's about 70% certain that Brooks will win this.  But don't completely discount Rockliff. 

Discard everyone else.

 

Denison

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Matthew Groom

$1.50

$1.95

$1.95

Scott Bacon

$4.00

$2.50

$2.50

Cassy O’Connor

$5.00

$6.00

$3.50

Julian Amos

 

$8.00

$9.00

Elise Archer

 

$9.00

$13.00

The Movers

Cassy crushed!  $6 into $3.50 is likely a single bet, but I think it's a good bet.  A $150 bet could have made that sort of impact on the small market and I think it probably did.  I feel a bit sorry for punters now though.  Ms O'Connor's shortening has taken a lot of value out of this market and it didn't move Groom Jnr or Bacon Jnr out any further.

The Value Bet

The value was Bacon, but with his drift into $2.50 O’Connor became the value at $6.  O'Connor at $3.50 makes 'value' hard to find in this market.

My personal view remains that either Bacon or O'Connor will win this because Groom has too much competition within the Liberal ranks.  If - like me - you believe this is a two horse race (without the favourite) then they're both value and you should bet on both for guaranteed profit!

The Tip

My immediate reaction to this market was that Bacon would clearly win it, but the polling over the weekend points to a weaker vote than I would have expected for Labor.  I'm still picking Bacon, but I think O'Connor's huge percentage of the Green vote will be very important.  If the polls are right and the Green vote holds up better than Labor's then O'Connor is in with a big shot.

Remember O'Connor JUST beat Bartlett here last time.

However, I would consider Bacon to be more popular this time than Bartlett was last time (that is pure opinion although I have run as a candidate within Denison recently and have a fairly good knowledge).  I would also consider Bacon to have significantly weaker internal competition than Bartlett did in 2010.

For that reason I am still picking Bacon to win with O'Connor second, Groom, Archer and probably Carnes if she can stay in the race until Bacon's surplus is cut up.

 

Franklin

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hodgman

$1.03

$1.03

Giddings

$17

$19

McKim

$19

$17

O’Byrne

$26

$26

Petrusma

$34

$34

The Tip

Hodgman will win this easily.  There's been no market movement. 

 

Lyons

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Hidding

 

$3

$4.00

Barnett

 

$3.75

$3.25

White

$6

$2.95

$2.20

Shelton

 

$7

$6.50

Morris

 

$9

$7.00

The Movers

I don't like to brag, but punters have either listened to me, or agree with me that the two bets here are White and - as a roughy - Morris.

Normally Rebecca White and Adam Brooks would have almost nothing in common apart from driving utes and being MPs, but tonight they share the love of punters across the State who have backed them into favouritism from being originally considered outside chances by the bookie.  White has come in from $6 to an incredible $2.20.

There has been a little bit of (heterosexual-only-after-marriage) action for former Senator Guy Barnett from $3.75 into $3.25.  If there was a market on whether Barnett would beat Hidding I would put my house on it.  The Ferguson effect (Federal MP into State seat = big votes) could be in force here, and Barnett hasn't exactly kept a low profile in his time off. 

I note at least one person has put a bet on Shelton.  Lots of laughs as he comes into $6.50.  Absolutely no hope.  It is truly bizarre that he is shorter than Morris who will clearly beat him.

The Value Bet

Tim Morris won this last time!!!

He's still out at $7 (in from $9) and I think that's waaaay too long. 

I reiterate, to increase your chances of topping the poll you don't want a strong team of fellow candidates on your ticket.  Morris has a weak Green ticket at his back.

I do not totally discount a Barnett win here because I think he's the strongest Liberal candidate.  However, I still think between Hidding, Shelton, Cadart and Evans there is just too much competition for him to top the poll.

The Tip

White*

*As long as the former Polley/Llewellyn voters don't hold a grudge about the polleywaffle thing.  Or just don't like her.  Or like Gordon better.

I think they'll vote White. 

HOWEVER, if you are going to have a bet on Ms White, make sure you have a little nibble on Mr Morris, just in case.

My tip:  White, Morris, Barnett, Hidding, Shelton

Comments (0)

10

March 2014

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I wrote a blog on Saturday night looking at the odds for the Tasmanian election.  You can find it here. 

There has been a significant development in Braddon.

Braddon

After having been taken down on Friday, put up on Saturday morning and taken down again on Saturday afternoon, this market finally reappeared on Monday afternoon.

Adam Brooks has now moved from $3.50 last Friday to $1.05 today. 

That is absolutely amazing.  I'm not sure I've ever seen a market move like that in three days.

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

$1.05

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

$5.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Green

11,221

Rockliff

10,994

Best

7,087

Brooks

6,072

O’Halloran

5,718

Rumours always circulate about Adam Brooks' spending.  We know he's a successful businessman and we know he is happy to spend big. 

To win the electorate, Brooks needs to make up almost 5,000 primary votes on the Liberal Party's high-profile, popular Deputy Leader Jeremy Rockliff.

And Rockliff isn’t mucking around either.  He put together the mother of all election ads that could have been directed by James Cameron for this campaign and his signs blanket the North West Coast.

He also polled a massive 11,000 votes last time around.

That’s why I can’t comprehend this plunge on Brooks. 

While I think Brooks is still the most likely outcome, I don't think it's a $1.05 chance.  $1.05 is almost as short as Hodgman is in Franklin. 

As I explained previously, this is a two-horse race that no one but Rockliff and Brooks can win.  If they were greyhounds you would have to say Rockliff's been given the best box with his longevity and status as Deputy Leader.  But Brooks is training out of the best kennel, with the best trainer courtesy of his financial largess.

I think Rockliff is now worth a speculative bet.  I said previously that if he got out to $4.50+ I’d have a nibble. 

Better whip out the wallet…

Comments (0)

9

March 2014

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I’m a rare breed.  Two of my favourite things are gambling and politics.  So when the two come together I get very bloody excited.

Sportsbet is taking bets on the outcome of the Tasmanian State election and electorate-by-electorate results.  Specifically, the odds for each electorate are for which candidate will get the highest number of primary votes.

The electorate-by-electorate betting on candidates is interesting because there is no (at least publicly available) polling about specific candidates.  I’m not sure Sportsbet will want to do it again because I think it made a number of errors when it set the initial odds.  Those have largely been rectified as astute #politas followers have taken the bookie on, extracting excellent value on candidates like Brooks, Ferguson, White and Bacon to top the poll.

But there’s still some value around, so let’s make some money.

 

Party of next Premier

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Liberal

$1.05

$1.05

Labor

$7.50

$7.50

Green

$15

$21

PUP

$51

$51

Historically Speaking

We all thought Will Hodgman was going to be Premier this time four years ago.  But no one counted on David Bartlett reacquainting himself with his bike and racing Nick McKim up Mt Wellington.

But this time the stage looks set for a big Liberal win of over 13 seats, majority and no need for Governor to do too much work.

The Movers

When this market originally went up in early January the Liberals were at an incredibly juicy $1.15.  That quickly shortened to $1.08 and now to $1.05.  It was briefly listed at $1.04. 

The only move in the last 24 hours is the Greens out to $21.  But you may as well give your money to charity if you’re thinking about taking that up.

The Value Bet

If Hodgman has a bad final week and secures less than 13 seats, it will be an open race to form government.  I’d like to be holding a Labor ticket at $7.50 in those circumstances given Hodgman has said he won’t govern in minority.

I’d like to meet anyone who has placed a bet on Greens or PUP and tell them about my friend in Kenya who needs help to move $1,000,000 out of the country…

The Tip

I wouldn’t bet on this.   All the polling shows the Liberals winning 13 + seats which is reflected in the short odds.

 

Bass

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Ferguson

$1.75

$1.45

Gutwein

 

$3.75

M O’Byrne

 

$9.00

Booth

 

$11.00

Wightman

 

$21.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Ferguson

15,911

O’Byrne

11,380

Gutwein

9,060

Booth

8,853

Wightman

3,191

The Movers

Friday’s odds aren’t all there (because they are off memory only) but I thought Ferguson was very good value at $1.75 at the time, but he’s come into $1.45 today which I think is about right.

In 2010 Ferguson was the former Federal Member for Bass who easily topped the poll with almost 16,000 primary votes.  There is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

The Value Bet

This candidate who tops the Bass poll will be from the Liberal Party.  The total Green vote will be below the top Liberal personal performance and Labor’s vote be well down overall and split between two strong candidates in Michelle O’Byrne and Wightman. 

That leaves Peter Gutwein as the only possible chance the beat Ferguson.  I think that’s very unlikely.  He was 7,000 votes behind Ferguson in 2010 and there’s nothing to suggest he could make up so much ground.

The Tip

Ferguson is a safe bet and at $1.45 you can still get a decent return on investment.  As shadow education spokesperson he’s had a strong four years and used the threat of school closures to further boost his profile. 

 

Braddon

10/3/2014 - note I have updated this Braddon analysis here

This betting has been taken down for the second time into two days.  The bookie seriously stuffed this up, offering the outrageously good odds of $3.50 for Adam Brooks.

When the market briefly reappeared on Saturday morning Brooks had been crushed into $1.75.  If he was a horse you’d be throwing accusations of a fix..

I’d love to know how much action this market has seen since it went up online (and then got taken down, and up and down).

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

 

 

 

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Green

11,221

Rockliff

10,994

Best

7,087

Brooks

6,072

O’Halloran

5,718

The Movers

Brooksy is the hot favourite among #politas types.  One Labor doorknocker in Braddon claimed he was more popular than David Boon and David Foster combined up on the Coast.  That’s impressive.

There’s nothing wrong with Rockliff.  He’s been electoral gold for the Liberals in the past.  But there’s just something about Brooksy, and it’s not hanging off his ear.

He spends big and he loves a good event.  It was an incredible effort for him to finish fourth at the last election, first time up.  Especially as he outpolled the high-profile, then sitting State Liberal MP Brett Whitely. 

The Value Bet

Brooksy was value at $3.50 and probably still is at $1.75.  Rockliff isn’t without a chance, but I’d like to see him go out a bit further than $3.50 before I had a nibble.  If he gets to $4.50 he might be worth a sneaky speculative bet simply because he finished so far ahead of Brooks last time.  Brooks has to make up over 5,000 primary votes to catch Rockliff.  That's a massive task.

Don't go near any other candidate.  Green and Best will split a declining Labor vote and the Greens will lose this seat to the PUP.

The Tip

Brooksy (if Sportsbet ever reopens the market).

 

Denison

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Matthew Groom

$1.50

$1.95

Scott Bacon

$4.00

$2.50

Cassy O’Connor

$5.00

$6.00

Julian Amos

 

$8.00

Elise Archer

 

$9.00

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

O’Connor

10,336

Bartlett

10,169

Groom

9,602

Bacon

7,356

Singh

3,833

The Movers

Another candidate crushed here.  Bacon has gone from juicy $4.00 odds to the more realistic $2.50.  That’s led to Groom and O’Connor drifting a little.  They are the only three candidates capable of topping this poll.

The Value Bet

The value was Bacon, but with his drift into $2.50 O’Connor becomes the value at $6.  She will pull 80+% of the Green vote again and I consider Burnett last time to have been a stronger running-mate than Harvey this time.

O’Connor won this last time and if the Green vote really is as strong in Denison as polling suggests, she could top the poll again.

The Tip

Bacon.  Labor has struggled with its preselections and failed to attract a high-profile second candidate to Denison to support Bacon.  That might be bad news for the party’s prospects of winning two seats, but its good news for Bacon’s chances to top the poll as a very high percentage of Labor votes are set to go his way.

Groom is a very strong candidate, but so is Archer.  While the Liberal vote will increase, Archer is set to increase her vote and eat into the Groom vote.  Liberal candidates for Denison Mallet, De Williams and Kling are also running solid campaigns, taking more potential first preference votes from Groom.

 

Franklin

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hodgman

$1.03

$1.03

Giddings

$17

$19

McKim

$19

$17

O’Byrne

$26

$26

Petrusma

$34

$34

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Hodgman

20,032

McKIm

15,462

Giddings

9,642

O’Byrne

4,846

Petrusma

2,500

The Movers

Minor changes with Giddings moving out to $19 and McKim coming into $17.

The Value Bet

None really.  Although if you could convince Sportsbet to let you put $1m at $1.03 on Hodgman you could go on a nice little holiday with the winnings.

McKim at $17 might not be as silly as it sounds.  The Liberals have another strong ticket in Franklin.  Petrusma has spent a lot of money, Harriss will take Huon Valley first preferences off Hodgman and Street is a popular first term Kingorough Councillor who outpolled Bernadette Black 2-1 in that election.  He is also one of the only new candidates to have managed to get media attention, with the Mercury covering his call for Bellerive to host an Ashes test and his sock delivery stunt having a subtle dig at Harriss.

If Petrusma, Harriss and Street can take enough votes off Hodgman, McKim (who has no real competition for Green votes) could sail on through for the win. 

Giddings and O'Byrne are set to split the Labor vote making neither a chance to top the poll.

The Tip

Hodgman should win this easily.

 

Lyons

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hidding

 

$3

Barnett

 

$3.75

White

$6

$2.95

Shelton

 

$7

Morris

 

$9

Historically Speaking

Candidate

2010 Primary Vote

Morris

9,108

Polley

8,302

Hidding

7,608

Llewellyn

6,612

White

6,450

The Movers

Again, the punters didn’t agree with the bookie and have taken Sportsbet on.  White has moved from $6 on Friday 7 March, into $3.50 early on Saturday and was the favourite at $2.95 by Saturday night.

The Value Bet

Tim Morris won this last time and it’s been pretty much business as usual for him since then.  At $9 he is excellent value.  To top the poll he’ll need the Liberal team to again poll pretty evenly and for David Llewellyn and Bob Gordon to take most of the Polley vote (as opposed to those votes going to White).

I don't believe any of the Liberals can win this.  Considering how long Hidding has been around, he has never really polled very well.  In 2010, his personal vote actually went down from 8,500 to 7,600.  Shelton hasn't had a huge impact on the Parliament since he arrived.  The smokey could be former Senator Guy Barnett who's into $3.75.  But remember, the Liberals also have popular local Mayors Cadart and Evans stealing first preferences.

The Tip

I think White is the most likely, providing former Polley voters don’t decide to switch over to Llewellyn or Gordon.

Have a little something on ever-consistent Tim Morris just in case.

 

Comments (2)

24

February 2014

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Jeremy Rockliff is the Deputy Leader of the Opposition.  He's also the Member for Braddon.  If you believe this ad, north-west coasters love farming A LOT and they’re very proud of their area.

WHAT IS GOING ON HERE

Jeremy Rockliff is about as safe as you could be going into a Hare Clark election.  He's the Deputy Leader, controversy free and his party is on the cusp of a strong result.  He's going to be returned.

My guess here is that he wants to top the poll.  In 2010 he was narrowly beaten for the most first preferences by Labor's then backbencher, Bryan Green overall, but still polled highest for the Liberals.

But with the ever-popular Adam Brooks cashed-up and ready to push for a senior Ministry, my only guess as to the reason for this kind of election spend is that he wants to make sure he's top dog in Braddon.

I don’t know Rockliff at all, but I’ve never met a politician without an ego when it comes to these matters.

The Ad

Damn this looks expensive.  As #politas' number 1 newsman Alex Johnston said, this looks like Spielberg has been brought in to film the pitch.

The cost is unknown.  I've put together a few political ads in my time, but none with a budget of over $5,000 and none with even close to the amount of work in it that this baby has.  It's actually quite astonishing and takes you in a completely different direction to every other ad you'll see.  It contrasts particularly well against the cheap and nasty (although effective) Palmer United ads.

I reckon this is a winner.  It's refreshingly different to the dozens of other election ads we're seeing on commercial television to date. 

But bloody hell would this be expensive.  I first suspected he might have simply bought the flyover footage of the northwest coast second-hand, but he's got shots following his Liberal Party marked truck driving down the dirt roads so I’m assuming he hired a helicopter (maybe it landed on Brooksy’s chopper pad in the outtakes?).

I'm no fan of spending caps so I don't really mind how much he spent, but if you were assessing a value for money proposition between this and other ads that mostly only cost a few grand, you might have to question it.  That’s about all I can find wrong with it though.

It might have zero policy in it, but I think it’ll work.  I go all warm and fuzzy watching it, and I’m up to take-10.

The full ad goes for a minute.  Again, that's different to anything else. 

It actually gives a bit of a shiver down the spine with how beautiful the scenery is, so I've booked a trip to Burnie next week.

The intention is to associate the north-west's pride its history with Rockliff.  I think it works a treat.

This could be campaign ad of the election for mine (unless Besty has brought in David Boon this year).

Concept:  9/10

Production:  10/10

Delivery:  9/10 (can you speak up a bit please, Jeremy?  Use your 'Parliament voice'.)

Humour:  0/10

Likely success of this ad:  8/10

 

 

Comments (0)

24

February 2014

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This ad is playing a lot on television at the moment and was online here:  http://vimeo.com/84998844

BUT ITS GONE!!! 

If you have a copy or are in fact David Llewellyn dialing into the interwebs, please contact me @deanwinter4 and tell me where to find it.

The David Llewellyn ad is amazing.

It features the 71-year old former Member for Lyons being endorsed by the comparatively spritely, 64-year old outgoing Member for Lyons, Michael Polley.

WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?

Look, I don't know. 

The first question one must ask is "WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING RUNNING FOR PARLIAMENT???"

David Llewellyn was a highly respected former ALP parliamentarian.  He was in Parliament for 24 years, held all sorts of portfolios and was a nice enough guy. He's even since been acknowledged for his service to the Tasmanian Labor Party with a life membership. 

Not to mention the huge payout he would have received following his forced retirement from public office.

In 2010, newbie 20-something, Rebecca White knocked both David Llewellyn and Heather Butler off to claim a win for the under-60s and take the coveted second Labor seat in Lyons with Mr Polley.

She did so with a clever campaign that still incenses the three former incumbents of Polley, Llewellyn and Butler.  White used a Polly waffle wrapper to being placed in the bin to innocently send a message to the electorate that it was time for a change.

Message received. 

White didn't get close to Polley, but easily beat Heather Butler and just pipped David Llewellyn in a result that secretly gave great joy to many in the ALP despite an otherwise horror result.

Unfortunately Llewellyn isn't a listener and still hasn't quite heard what the good peeps of Lyons have been puttin' down. 

Message not received. 

Llewellyn farcically enters the race for the second Labor seat in Lyons.  Sadly, the Rebecca White ad has been taken down, but the story lives in the Mercury archives here.  You should tweet at @bec_white and ask her to put it back up though.  It was the best television ad of the 2010 campaign inside the best rounded campaign of the election.

I've talked to experienced campaigners who predict a Llewellyn victory on the back of his own popularity and his strategy to directly move Polley voters across to himself.  I say it won't work. 

If I'm wrong, I will dip my hat to Mr Llewellyn and his campaign team. 

For mine, the ad completely misses the mark and serves only the highlight Llewellyn's weaknesses:

  • He's 71.

  • He's basically running on the Liberals' forestry policy (nothing wrong with that but if you like the Liberals' forestry policy you're going to vote Liberal aren't you?)

  • He's 71!!!

The only chance Llewellyn could possibly have of winning this campaign is through:

  • The huge campaign support being thrown behind him by the Labor Right (at the expense of young, enthusiastic prospects with little or no help from the ALP machine I might add);

  • The low profiles of his fellow ALP candidates going for the second ALP seat in Lyons (which may or may not actually exist anyway).

THE AD

Michael Polley is a superstar of Tasmanian Politics.  He's basically politics' version of Slim Dusty.  He has had such a long career no one can remember when he started and you couldn't hope to put together his best of.  ALTHOUGH, have you heard the one about the time he found his ethics and morals under Peg Putt's table in Salamanca?  Or about the time he established a shooters club in a national park as Environment Minister?

The ad could be easily mistaken as an ad for Michael Polley himself as he strolls around the towns and suburbs of Lyons.  But I think this is the completely wrong message for Llewellyn.

The image of Polley and Llewellyn standing there at the end almost brought me to tears (of laughter) when I first saw it.  It's like being taken back to watching Grumpy Old Men

And Llewellyn clearly IS angry. That's why I don't like this ad.  It's clear he hasn't got over the Rebecca White campaign and his subsiquent absense from the Parliament.  I don't think you have to be an avid #Politas tweeterer to know that.

The whole idea of this ad is wrong.  Llewellyn is counting on the ad converting voters have been voting Polley for the past 40+ years (some would never have supported anyone else in their life) to votes for himself.  In fact that's his whole campaign strategy.  I don't think it'll work.

RATINGS

Concept:  0/10

Production:  5/10

Delivery:  6/10

Humour:  8/10

Likely success of this ad:  1/10

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